| In just a few decades, the delivery media for audio, | | | | PR-are gone. Commerce is now "interactive" and |
| video and data have evolved dramatically. From such | | | | many end-users shop without leaving home. Internet |
| analog media as vinyl records, 8-tracks, cassette | | | | shopping has been here for some time, and for |
| tapes and floppy disks, the purveyors of pop culture | | | | products that can be transmitted in binary (0s and |
| and their computer-industry cohorts gradually entered | | | | 1s), the medium (the web) is not the message |
| the "digital era" with its CDs, DVDs and, now, various | | | | anymore, pace Marshall McLuhan; it is the package. |
| forms of "flash memory." | | | | At the dawn of the millennium, Video-on-Demand |
| The Magnetic Media Information Service (MMIS), | | | | ("VOD") delivery was done largely via cable networks. |
| formed in 1965, is a global consortium that provides | | | | However, research group iSuppli reports that mobile |
| service, analyses and forecasts for and about the | | | | and Internet downloading have grown rapidly over |
| media industry. It reports that worldwide production | | | | the last few years; by 2010 the Internet could be |
| of audio cassette tape fell below one billion C-60 | | | | the major delivery system for digital entertainment. |
| equivalents in 2007, the latest year with complete | | | | In 2006, iSuppli estimated that total VOD revenues |
| figures; a mere ten years ago, production was nearly | | | | reached almost $2 billion worldwide, impressive |
| five times as much. Blank cassette demand will fall to | | | | growth from about $700 million in 2004. By 2010, |
| about 110-115 million by 2011, with more than half of | | | | total VOD revenues are forecast to reach $12.6 |
| the remaining demand coming from third-world | | | | billion, with cable accounting for $5.7 billion (45%), |
| markets. For the technology leaders and early | | | | mobile and related revenues $2.4 billion (19%) and |
| adopters of the industrialized (should we now say | | | | broadband Internet $4.5 billion (36%). At the present |
| "digitized"?) nations, tape is dying, if not dead. | | | | rate of change, and with the coming "convergence" |
| Demand for full-size, blank VHS video cassettes will | | | | of home-delivery channels, it could be "all-Internet," all |
| suffer even greater percentage declines over the | | | | the time, by 2015. |
| next several years. Global demand for units of all | | | | The other track to follow is storage. Since distribution |
| playing times, around 340-350 million pieces this year, | | | | will be via broadband, the "packaging" is no longer the |
| will fall to just 150-160 million units in 2009. The MiniDV | | | | concern of the content producer or retailer; there are |
| cassette, an analog-digital hybrid of sorts and the | | | | no packages any longer. But there is a huge need for |
| only tape format still important in camcorder | | | | storage, and an ancillary need for portability and |
| applications, is forecast to decline somewhat more | | | | in-home transmission. Along with growth in home |
| slowly than other tape media; still, output will fall from | | | | networking (mostly wireless), there will be the |
| about 200 million units in 2006 to around 140 million in | | | | continuing development of ever cheaper, ever more |
| 2010. | | | | capacious storage systems. The main contenders are |
| Although most of today's PCs still come with a | | | | the active and passive magnetic media-hard drives |
| 3.5-inch floppy drive, users seldom reach for a floppy | | | | and flash memory. |
| disk except perhaps as an emergency coaster for a | | | | Even flash memory, a recent development in relative |
| can of soda; Apple's Macintosh computers haven't | | | | terms, has gone through its evolutionary changes. |
| had floppy drives since 1998. Although the demand | | | | Some early types, like SmartMedia, are nearing |
| for diskettes in 2006 still surpassed 760 million units, | | | | extinction, while other original entries like |
| by 2010 demand will have declined by over half, to | | | | CompactFlash are still being used widely. The most |
| 320-330 million units worldwide. | | | | popular types of flash memory today are |
| In with the new | | | | CompactFlash; SecureDigital, mini-SecureDigital and |
| Compact Disc (CD) technology was first introduced in | | | | SecureDigital-IO (SD, mini-SD and SDIO); xD |
| the 1980s in a form factor known as the "optical | | | | PictureCard (mainly for cameras); and Sony's |
| disc," essentially a rewritable platter enclosed in a | | | | MemoryStick. |
| carrier shell; its considerable price tag of about $100 | | | | Flash memory enjoyed another stellar year in 2007, |
| was dwarfed by the $3000-4000 cost of the | | | | with each month seemingly bringing yet another |
| recording/playback units. The CD soon broke out of | | | | announcement of still-higher storage capacity and |
| its shell, figuratively and literally, and in its present | | | | still-lower cost. SecureDigital cards with 32GB of |
| form rose to dominate the distribution of recorded | | | | storage capacity were introduced in 2008, and the |
| entertainment in short order. In 2009, the standard | | | | street price has already fallen to $75 from the initial |
| blank CD-R costs about a dime when 100-packs go | | | | $199 cost; the most popular 2GB form factor, which |
| on sale, and holds 700MB of material-data, music, | | | | cost upwards of $50 in 2006, is just $10-12 today. By |
| video, whatever-while CD burners for computers | | | | the end of 2007, some 200 million USB flash-memory |
| start at about $15. | | | | drives had been sold since their introduction in 2001, |
| Next came the DVD. From an original format with 4.7 | | | | and the end is nowhere in sight. |
| GB of storage it has matured into a dual-layer | | | | The tracks converge |
| medium that can hold 8.5 GB. The technology still | | | | Flash memory is becoming ubiquitous in the consumer |
| making the news in this area, after debuting in the | | | | field and it realistically threatens to eliminate not only |
| middle of the decade, is HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, with | | | | most current applications for magnetic tape, but |
| capacities of 15-30GB and 25-50GB, | | | | many of those for optical media (CDs, DVDs) as well. |
| respectively, for single and dual layer media. The | | | | By 2010, say analysts, 50GB flash memory cards will |
| "burners" are still pricey at $300 and up, but these | | | | be as readily available as 2-4GB units are now, and at |
| prices will fall dramatically upon the spread of the | | | | about the same street price. DVD-quality movies can |
| technology. Discs cost from $10 to $30 at this time, | | | | be offloaded from a consumer's web-connected |
| depending on capacity, with prices already showing a | | | | computer to flash memory via a $9 "card |
| decline as business picks up. | | | | reader"-with three movies fitting comfortably on |
| Today, though, the standard CD and DVD still carry | | | | today's 16GB cards. |
| most of the media load. Some 65 percent of all | | | | Hard drive development also continues apace, and |
| recordable discs manufactured in 2007 came from | | | | already we have seen the first so-called "hybrid" |
| Taiwan, and just two Taiwanese optical media | | | | hard-disk drives introduced, drives that include a |
| producers, CMC and Ritek, produced roughly half of | | | | flash-memory storage chip that helps to speed up |
| that. CMC reported sales of over U.S.$1 billion for | | | | overall PC operations such as initial boot-up. In 2007, |
| 2007, and Ritek was not far behind, but if this | | | | flash memory leader SanDisk debuted a 32GB SSD |
| sounds like good news, it masks a number of | | | | (Solid State Drive, a flash memory unit in a 2.5-in |
| problems. | | | | laptop-drive form factor) and laptop manufacturers |
| The optical disc replication industry, which | | | | from Apple to Dell offer models with this silent, |
| manufactures CDs and DVDs for the entertainment | | | | low-power, crash-resistant technology. |
| industry, will not remember 2006 or 2007 with much | | | | Even traditional "spinning platter" hard drives are no |
| fondness. Demands were down in all global markets. | | | | longer the expensive marvels they once were, and |
| Published figures for the second half of 2007 indicate | | | | hard drives with capacities of up to 1TB (terabyte, a |
| that retail sales in the U.S. market were down by | | | | thousand gigabytes) cost, on average, less than |
| slightly more than 10 percent (2007 vs 2006), in | | | | 30¢ per GB. (The writer's first hard drive, a |
| Japan by between 3-5 percent and worldwide | | | | 20MB external SCSI drive, cost $800 in 1985; today, |
| between 4-6 percent. | | | | $800 buys an astonishing 80,000 times as much hard |
| Worldwide retail DVD movie sales will definitely be | | | | drive storage capacity.) |
| down again in the years to come. And yet, with all | | | | The challenge for content producers is multifaceted, |
| the wailing and gnashing of teeth at record | | | | as they need to confront changes in marketing, |
| companies and movie studios, the voice of reason is | | | | production, delivery, technology and customer |
| issuing a clear call: "Check with the end user, and get | | | | mindset. With all the attention given to the |
| on the flash-memory bandwagon!" | | | | "connected" consumers, who is servicing (and selling |
| Consumer is king | | | | to) the unconnected ones? How much of the sales |
| Two developments point the way toward the future | | | | effort will become educational as technological change |
| of content distribution and, by knowing how these | | | | continues to hurtle into the future, threatening to |
| tracks intersect and interact, content producers will | | | | leave entire segments of society (and some entire |
| find plenty of demand to fulfill. The days of pouring | | | | nations) behind? |
| movies, music and software into the wholesale and | | | | The only thing certain, the sages say, is change. |
| retail channels-then goosing sales with marketing and | | | | |