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Estimating by Percentages

"Remember, it's Ready, Aim, Fire; any otherproject. Instead I advocate more time spent
sequence  is  counterproductive."in the early phases for better clarity of
requirements definition and for producing
-  Bryce's  Lawbetter specifications for the programmers and
DBA's to follow. Under this scenario, I see
Having been involved with the systemsas much as 60% in the early phases involving
methodologies field for over 30 years I havesystems analysis and design, 15% in
been occasionally asked what percentage ofprogramming, and 25% in implementation and
time in a project should typically be devotedreview. You heard right, 15% in programming.
to a specific phase of work, for example aWhy the disparity? Simply because programmers
Phase 1 Feasibility Study, Phase 2 Systemshave long suffered from the lack of decent
Design, etc. Basically, the reason the personspecifications and end up spinning their
wants to know this is to use it as a meanswheels over and over again trying to deliver
for estimating the remainder of the project.what is needed. But if you concentrate on
For example, if I were to say Phase 1better specifications upfront, the guesswork
represents 10% of the overall project, theyis  eliminated  for  the  programmer.
would simply multiply the amount of time
spent in Phase 1 by ten. This is anSome people consider the upfront work to be
unreliable approach for estimating which issomewhat frivolous, that the "real work" is
why I usually balk at giving out suchdown in programming. I don't know why this
figures.is, perhaps programming is more tangible
since screens and reports can be visibly
Systems development projects vary in sizeshown to people. But I do not subscribe to
from large to small and although statisticsthis notion, and believe the vital work to be
should certainly be maintained, I stillin the early phases, but then again, I am
consider this an erroneous approach toconsidered a dinosaur by the "Agile"
estimating. Instead, I recommend basing anmethodology people. Regardless, if you have
estimate on a rough design of the product toto build anything of substance, be it a
be built (the system), including all of itsbridge, a skyscraper, an automobile, or a
pieces and parts, such as inputs, outputs,system or a single program, you have to do
files, records, data elements, etc. Some ofyour homework first, otherwise you find
these components may be reused from otheryourself constantly tearing things down and
systems, some may require modification, andrebuilding them over and over again. If we
some may be entirely new. This is calledbuilt bridges the same way we build systems
estimating based on the system's "Bill ofin this country, this would be a nation run
Materials," a simple concept derived fromby  ferryboats.
engineering and manufacturing. Even if a
project only involves a single program (asOne last word on applying percentages to
opposed to a major system), I would stillproject estimates, the danger here is that
examine the types and number of componentsyou might calculate you are 90% complete;
affected  by  the  assignment.inevitably you will discover the last 10%
will take forever. So, my recommendation is
Having said all of this, let me give you myto avoid the percentage trap and consider the
spin on the proportion of work in the typicalBill of Materials you are going to work on
systems development project. I have seen manyinstead.
companies skip through the early phases in
order to get to the programming phases whichIf you would like to discuss this with me in
is considered the important work. Under thismore depth, please do not hesitate to send me
scenario, programming represents 85% of thean e-mail.



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